Can Odor put it together?

Mainly known for his role in the punch that was heard around the baseball world, Rougned Odor was one once a top prospect for the Texas Rangers prior to his 2013 major league debut. Odor has always had a unique blend of 30 home-run power with the ability to steal bases with his career high of 15 coming in 2017. But through the years one thing has been made obvious and that's the fact that Odor simply doesn't know how to take a walk, something interesting to see through the years while have below average/poor plate discipline, his walk% since 2017 has rose each year and has been able to bring down his O-swing% each year since 2017. We've seen the poor performances like his 2017 season, but we've also seen him put it all together like he did in his 2016 "breakout" season where he hit a career high 33 home runs with 14 steals. Still only 26, there is a lot of untapped potential and were going to look at that today.

2016 season:

2016 is when Odor had his "power breakout" when he mashed 33 home-runs with a .502 slugging% after only hitting a combined total of 25 in his previous 2 seasons. His slash line that season was .271/.296/.502 with a 10 103 wRC+ and .323 xwOBA, meanwhile is hard-hit rate made a jump up to 35.4% after being in the mid-late 20's the previous 2 years. 2016 is still one of his best seasons to date when you look at his X stats, career high of a .262 xBA and a .463 xSLG. He became the only hitter that year with 30 home runs while having walk rate below 5%, he would also have the lowest walk rate among all qualified batters. 2016 was the year where he had his first significant bump in hard hit%, going from 29.1% in 2015 to 35.4% in 2019 (according to Fangraphs).

Plate Discipline:

Since his debut in 2014, its been air apparent that Odor is not necessarily one of the most patient hitters you've ever seen but has gotten to the point where he now has a solid walk rate and with enough contact the average could take a bump as well.

Dating back to 2016 Odor has managed to lower his O-swing each year and now as it at a level that is at a solid point where now he just needs to work on making more contact with the ball. Making contact hasn't necessarily been the easiest for Odor who on his swings looks like he is going to swing out of his shoes. 2019 was his worst year as far as making contact went with a 73.1, their is room for improvement on that number as previous season his contact% hovered in the mid to upper 70's. Something interesting to look at is the walk rate of Odor through the years rising from 3% in 2016 up to 9% this past season. Thats huge step forward for a player like odor with a lot of swing and miss in his game. This most recent season Odor was in the 17th percentile among qualified hitters in Whiff% which isn't a number he can afford to have moving forward.

He has though managed to make strides when it comes to swinging in general, dropping his swing% each season from 2016 (54.3%) to 2019 (47.4). Although it isn't a huge drop through 4 seasons, its a sign that a player like Odor that as he enters his prime at the age of 26, could put it all together and be like the player we saw in 2016 and the second half of the 2018 season.

Consistency:

Player A- .237/.288/.416 .301wOBA/80 wRC+ 5BB%/23.5K%

Player B- .244/.298/.464 .322wOBA/94 wRC+ 6.3BB%/22.3K%

To put it lightly, neither of these players look appealing. Player B is the better hitter but still isnt all to exciting. Player A is Odor throughout his career in the 1st half and Player B is Odor in the second half.

Looking at his xwOBA through the years its pretty obvious his splits between the 1st and 2nd half of the seasons. Every single season his xwOBA never reaches league average until the month of July before/shortly after the all star break which obviously hinders his career .312 xwOBA.

His 2018 second half was very intriguing entering the 2019 season, he took a step back in the second half in 2019 but was still well above the league average xwOBA and if he can put it all together for an entire season, their is a lot o room for his slash-line to rise despite him never really having a high BABIP during his short career (career .274 BABIP).

2019 Hard Hit jump:

Odor finished the 2019 season in the 86 percentile in hard hit rate at 45.6% which was a career high, as well as an amazing Barrel% of 13.6% which lead him into the 92nd percentile.

2019 was the year where his hard hit rate took a huge step forward, but that hard hit rate isn't as meaningful when you are hardly making enough contact. A small part that may have had a lower average as his 16 degree launch angle which would explain his career high Fly-ball rate of 47.9% (according to Fangraphs). But when you take in his improvements at the plate since 2016 from his improved O-swing to his swing%, on of the things that hinders him extremely is his k%. 2019 his K% was a career worst at 30.6%, through the years his K% reached as high as 24.9% in 2017 and low as 16.8% in 2017. But given how much he has changed as a player since his first 2 seasons in the league, i wouldn't hold my breath on him lowering that K% down south of 20% but could manage in a best case scenario having it be in the mid 20's which be more than achievable for Odor.