Consistency is boring

Every year we are given a pitcher that catches the eyes of everyone whether it be guys who throw in the triple digits consistently, or a former top prospect that has finally put together a quality season. As the years have gone by there has been a pitcher that gets more and more underrated each and every single year, Many would argue that his man is the best starting pitcher in Chicago. That man, is right handed pitcher Kyle Hendricks of the Chicago Cubs.

Hendricks has pitched 966 inning since his debut in 2014 with the Chicago Cubs. In those innings he has been arguably one of the most consistent pitchers in all of baseball with a 3.14 ERA/3.53 FIP/3.76 xFIP/3.92 SIERA and a 1.11 WHIP. Something through the years that we've all taken notice of, is that Hendricks is the complete opposite of what you would call a fire-baller that throws in the mid to upper 90's. In fact, he typically rarely ever hits the 90 MPH plateau and instead has maintained his consistency by locating pitches and getting ahead in the count. Many have gone essentially blind to how good of a pitcher Hendricks truly is for the sole fact that his fastball has sit in the bottom 3rd percentile of all qualified pitchers and rarely if ever puts up insane strikeout numbers. This has lead to him becoming one of if not the most underrated pitcher in all of baseball.

Batted ball profile through the year:

Like i said before, Hendricks has relied on locating his pitches and getting ahead in the count. (see image below).

Looking at Hendricks's Pitcher Plinko from 2019, its obvious to see how well he manages at controlling the count. Hendricks is primarily a sinker ball pitcher that mixes it in with a Curve-ball, a Change-up and a 4 seam fastball (as seen in the Plinko above). Every year since his first full season in 2015 Hendricks has ranked at worst the 10th percentile in Exit Velocity and that matches up with his Barrel% that sits well below league average at 4.5% (league average is 6.3%). His hard hit rate for his career currently sits at 2.1%, which is also well below the league average of 34.5%.

His hard hit% spends most of its time in the basement below league average which comes as a huge surprise for the high 80's fastball that he mostly uses through his starts. His ground-ball% through his career currently sits at 47.5%. His sinker although is one of the main pitches in his arsenal, it isn't one of his best pitches necessarily .

Its not a terrible sinker by any means, but his curve-ball and change-up are by far his better pitches since roughly 2017 when you take a look at the xwOBA of each pitch.

Pitch Arsenal:

His sinker/4 seam are pretty standard nothing that really sticks out about them besides the obvious difference in velocity with both pitches sitting between 86MPH-88MPH. He used a cutter up until the 2018 where he scrapped the pitch. The pitch that i wanna focus on is his curve-ball.

In 2019 Hendricks used his curve-ball 9.7% of the time and the pitch usually sits around 71.4MPH (league average is 79.4% according to baseball savant). He set a career high usage rate with the pitch after having disappointing results with the pitch in both 2017 and 2018. This might look like a random good year with the pitch, but when you look at the pitches movements throughout the year there is room for optimism that the pitch could be getting better. Every year since his debut, the pitch has gained more break both vertically and horizontally.

Another interesting thing to watch was his 4-seam fastballs effectiveness this season after a rough 2018 with the pitch. 2018 his 4-seam was a beach ball to opposing hitters, opponents had a slugging% of .567 to go with a .674 expected slugging percentage. Mixing that in with the pitches .402wOBA/.459xwOBA, its fair to say he would of been better off not throwing the pitch at all. 2019 though was a solid bounce back year .302SLG/..450xSLG and a .225wOBA/..317xwOBA, both much nicer numbers to look at.

Consistency:

Looking at his career numbers you'll see Hendricks has been one of the more consistent pitchers in today's game all while throwing in the 80's. But a place where he hasnt been consistent is the 3rd time through the order.

(not included in chart)

ERA 1st time through = 2.94/364.2 innings

ERA 2nd time through= 2.40/360.2 innings

ERA 3rd time through= 4.72/225 innings

Now when you look at the FIP/xFIP his 3rd time through it makes you feel a bit better about the results. Even when you look at the FIP/xFIP it could be an overreaction of him "struggling the 3rd time around, but its something to keep an eye on as a pitcher.

Hendricks may never go back to being the player he was in 2016 where he won the ERA title with a 2.13ERA. But if the improvements on his pitches keep up, Cubs fans can look forward to many more years of a mid to possibly even low 3 ERA.